Destaques do MAPHS
Acompanhe as últimas pesquisas, estudos e análises sobre impactos climáticos na saúde
First-version ensemble niche modeling (biomod2: GLM, GAM, CTA, FDA, MARS, RF; 80/20 cross-validation) of human rabies (SINAN, 2001–Aug/2023), Oropouche fever (2023, via LAI/Fala.BR) and rabies-positive bat species in the Legal Amazon, using CHIRPS dry days, CDD, anomalous accumulation (2000–2023) and LST (2001–2020; SSP2_RCP4.5, SSP3_RCP7.0).
First-version spatial analysis of LST (Butt et al., 2023; baseline 2001–2020, SSP2_RCP4.5, SSP3_RCP7.0; 1 km grid) against PRODES deforestation and IBGE Census 2010/2022 in six Legal Amazon capitals. Central areas are hotter than peripheries; LST rises with deforestation share (median ~33°C at 25–50%, ~34°C at 75%, ~35°C at 100%) and peaks in 5–8 minimum-wage households.
Ecological study (first version) estimating the exposure-response between daily Land Surface Temperature (ERA5-Land) and non-external, cardiovascular, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality in six Legal Amazon capitals (2001–2019) via DLNM and meta-regression, projecting attributable deaths under SSP2_RCP4.5 and SSP3 scenarios (Butt et al., 2023). Risk increases above 29°C LST. Under the extreme scenario: AF 3.9% non-external, 5.7% cardiovascular; 2,209 attributable deaths/year (95% CI 460–3,623).
Ensemble niche modeling (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, GLM; biomod2) of climatic suitability for human rabies in Brazil, using SINAN notifications (Jan/2001–Aug/2023) georeferenced to municipal centroids and WorldClim bioclimatic variables (1970–2000; 2.5 min). Future: HadGEM3-GC31-LL, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100. Consensus AUC 0.90, sensitivity 87%, specificity 81%. Temperature seasonality (BIO4) had the highest relative contribution.